Background: Maximising forest profitability is important from both economic and ecological perspectives. Managers of forest areas gain utility by optimising profits, and maximising the efficiency of a forest stand is also beneficial to the natural environment. This study presents a method to estimate and visualise forestry profitability based on variables defined in previous studies. The design space included economic and forest stand factors that can affect profitability. A contribution index analysis identified factors that significantly impact profitability, and these factors were then applied to data collected from a forest area in Japan. The effects of the two primary factors, discount rate and rotation period length, on a measure of profitability, the soil expectation value, were visualised in three-dimensional space. Methods: The site used in this study, located by Morotsuka village in the Miyazaki Prefecture, Japan. Variables previously found to have significant effects on forestry profitability were used to define a design space of variables for calculating and displaying profitability, after which data from the cited study were used to estimate the variables' SEV contribution indices. The effects of the important factors for forestry profitability were then analysed and visualised. Dimensions of the design space were constructed from previously published forestry inventory data and consisted of two stand condition factors, three site condition factors, one economic condition factor and one silvicultural planning factor. This study used previously published inventory data regarding stand age, site index and tree species. Additionally, the forestry profit simulator was used to estimate the optimal rotation period in terms of soil expectation value. The relationships between SEV and these significant factors were then graphically visualised. The significant factors identified as described above were used to estimate SEV-based profitability distributions, based on the inventory data used to construct the design space and optimal rotation periods, for the studied forest. Results: Changes in rotation period affected forestry profitability. However, the effect depended on stand, site and economic conditions. In scenarios characterised by relatively low site productivity index and harvesting area, which results in low profitability, rotation period changes did not have a strong effect on profitability. On the other hand, it was vital to select the optimal rotation period for high profitability areas as even a small deviation had a significant impact on profitability. Furthermore, it was shown that by synchronising the harvesting times of small, adjacent stands, the overall profitability increased through reductions in forest management costs. Conclusions: These results can help local forest management increase profitability through cooperation with individual forest owners. The presented method also has risk management applications, as it could be used to estimate the effects of external uncertainty variables on forest profitability.

We describe the development of a simulation based on neighbor relationships between small stands forming many sub compartments in a forested area. We used a Geographic Information System (GIS) to simulate local forest management plans. The distribution and intensity of different silvicultural practices were visualized. We also determined whether, at specified rates, the implementation of forestry operations was optimum for the desired outcomes in specific compartments. Based on the results, we discuss the tradeoff between two silvicultural strategies. First, the rational economic strategy, which generally focuses on implementing silvicultural prescriptions in some compartments. Second, the environmental strategy, which generally focuses on implementing silvicultural prescriptions in all compartments, taking account of environmental forestry practices. The difference between profits under the two strategies at the study site was approximately 20 %, and this economic difference could be considered to represent "opportunity costs" of a commitment to environmentally conscious management. We created the simulation to map the strategies based on the location of existing forest roads and any special constraints. In addition, the model could be used as a decision-making tool for considering the tradeoff between environmental and economic strategies.

By considering trade-offs and complementarity between carbon removal from the atmosphere by forests and emission reduction by wood use, we developed a forest-sector carbon integrated model for Japan. We discuss mitigation measures for Japan based on model projections. The integrated model included the forest model and the wood use model. Based on three scenarios (baseline, moderate increase, and rapid increase) of harvesting and wood use, the integrated model projected mitigation effects including carbon removal by forests and emission reduction through the wider use of wood, until 2050. Results indicate that forests will not become a source of net carbon emissions under the three scenarios considered. The baseline scenario is most effective for mitigating climate change, for most periods. However, the sum total of carbon removal in forests and carbon emission reductions by wood use under the rapid increase scenario exceeded the one of the moderate increase scenario after 2043. This was because of strong mitigation activities: promoting replanting, using new high-yield varieties, and wood use. The results also indicated that increases in emission reduction due to greater wood use compensated for 67.9 % of the decrease of carbon removal in 2050, for the rapid increase scenario. The results show that carbon removal in forests is most important in the short term because of the relative youth of the planted forests in Japan, and that mitigation effects by material and energy substitution may become greater over the longer term.

A simulation system, based on pre-existing models, was used to investigate and visualize the solution space for optimizing forest management planning. The simulation system used existing forestry profits estimation models to test the outcomes of different crop rotations by previous studies. The simulation enabled us to predict forestry profits and labor requirements under different forestry management plans, and to examine the consequences for harvesting strategies. A part of the Kyushu region was selected as the study site, because the basic sub-models for predicting timber production, labor requirements and forestry profits were developed in the area. This study has investigated and visualized the solution space optimized for forest economics using various combinations of short and long rotation silvicultural practices implemented at a local scale. Based on the simulations, optimization of the plans was formulated under the forestry scale of compartment and total level. Visualizing the 3-dimensional optimized solution space by using a simulation system is useful for decision-makers involved with local forest management planning. The differences of forestry profits, labor requirements and timber volume depending on the intensity of silvicultural practices were analyzed. The simulation system is also useful for sustainable forest management under the Japanese forestry planning system.

Establishing forest reference emission levels (RELs) and/or forest reference levels (RLs) is an important task for developing country parties considering taking part in the REDD+ scheme under the UNFCCC, especially for those countries experiencing corresponding economic development with land use changes. In this research, Cambodia's forest areas and forest carbon stocks from 2011 to 2018 were forecasted, which can be used as a reference for establishing forest RELs in Cambodia. Conditional to the assumptions of population growth, the growth in agricultural gross value added, and the level of economic land concession implementations, the forecasts by panel data analysis to provincial-level data showed that the forest area in Cambodia will decrease to 9.94 million ha in 2014 and 9.51 million ha in 2018 from 10.36 million ha in 2010 and that forest carbon stocks will decrease to 1.22 PgC in 2014 and 1.17 PgC in 2018 from 1.28 PgC in 2010.

The objectives of this study were to develop a national-level system for simulating the carbon dynamics of planted forests of hinoki, which is the second most important plantation species in Japan, and to discuss the effects of forestry on the carbon dynamics of hinoki planted forests at a national scale. We developed a simulation system consisting of a 1-km-grid national-level forest database and a stand-level carbon cycle model. We simulated the forest carbon dynamics for 2005 to 2050 at a national scale using the developed simulation system with estimated climatic values and harvested timber volumes. The results of simulations indicated that the promotion of forestry leads to a decrease in both total carbon stocks and total carbon sequestration for hinoki planted forests in Japan. Longer-term simulation is required to evaluate the effects of clearcutting and subsequent replanting on the carbon dynamics of Japan's forests.

日本政府は、京都議定書第２約束期間には参加しないが、地球温暖化対策を引き続き推進し、対策の一つとして二国間オフセット・クレジット制度（JCM/BOCM）を導入することを表明している。そこにREDDプラス（途上国における森林減少・劣化に起因する温室効果ガス排出削減策）を組み入れるためには、排出削減量・吸収量算定のための方法論の開発が求められるが、REDDプラスはCDMには無い全く新たな活動であり、他の排出削減分野と比較し方法論の開発が遅れている。そこで、JCM/BOCMでの利用を想定し、REDDプラス活動による排出削減量・吸収量算定のための方法論を開発する上でベースとなる共通の指針（ガイドライン）を開発した。まず、UNFCCCでの議論や関連する枠組みとしてCDMやVCSを精査し、経済産業省及び環境省で進められている実現可能性調査事業（FS事業）の成果から、論点と対処方法を整理した。さらに、FS事業者や関係機関、専門家が参加するワークショップを開催し、実現可能性を含めた議論をふまえて指針を取りまとめた。これを、JCM/BOCMのためのREDDプラス実施ガイドラインとして提案する。

This study aimed to propose a simple and practical method for land-cover mapping by multi-temporal Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) images in combination with systematically sampled ground truth data. The land-cover mapping was attempted and evaluated in two study areas located in northern and southwestern Japan, using two-seasonal and three-seasonal images. The results of this study indicated that the accuracy of land-cover map can be improved by addition of autumn image to two-seasonal images of spring and summer images. The user's accuracy was greatly improved in the land-cover which shows clear seasonal changes of spectral characteristics such as deciduous forests. The final land-cover maps of entire study areas were created using two-seasonal images and three-seasonal images (the overall accuracy and overall Kappa coefficient were 81.4% and 0.746 for Study Area 1, and 87.6% and 0.779 for Study Area 2, respectively). In recent years, access to ETM+ images of many different seasons is becoming easier. This study indicated that the approach using multi-temporal ETM+ images from many different seasons would be one of the possible choices in order to create nationwide land-cover map with higher accuracy.

We examined non-destructive methodologies for practicalities in monitoring anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from tropical dry-land forest under the influence of various forms of human intervention. Spaceborne SAR withstood comparison with Landsat ETM+ in land cover classification Of degraded tropical forest. For measurement of carbon stock and GHG flux per unit land area, the gain-loss method requires both growth rate and removal rate of forest carbon stock. However, the latter has rarely been obtained in tropical forest. For the stock-difference method, permanent sampling plot data can be used to estimate mean carbon stock per unit land area of each forest type. For cyclic land use that includes a clear-cutting stage such as slash-and-burn agriculture, chronosequential changes in carbon stock can be predicted by determining the time and spatial-distribution of cleared land. Changes in forest biomass by logging, storm-damage, etc., may be identified by monitoring the presence and diameter of the crowns of overstory trees. We developed five equations containing the parameter for crown diameter for estimating tree biomass. Overstory height can be a parameter for estimating ecosystem carbon stock of various plant communities, and forest height can be measured by airborne and spaceborne sensors, etc. Generic equations containing the parameter for overstory height are available for estimating community biomass of tropical and subtropical forests. PALSAR has an advantage over other remote systems by enabling frequent sensing and semi-direct biomass estimation using backscattering coefficients. However, no reasonable remote sensing methods exist for monitoring the amount of carbon loss by forest conversion and logging in forests with high biomass. To compensate for the faults of the present PALSAR methodologies and to enable practical and frequent monitoring of all types of forests by humans, it is vital to devise a new methodology to detect changes in high-biomass forests.

間伐による適切な密度管理の推進のため, 既往のシステム収穫表の一つであるLocal Yield table Construction System (LYCS) を, 県の林業試験場や森林組合の意見・要望をもとに改良した。まず, LYCSの適用樹種・地域を拡大するためパラメータを整備し, 利用しやすくするためプログラムをExcel マクロへ移植した。また, 個別林分に適用できるようにするため, 地位の小数点以下の指定, 初期値としての実測データの利用を可能にした。さらに, 多様な施業に対応するため, 自己間引きの反映, 間伐方法の選択を可能にした。加えて, 収入予測を行うため, 採材や材価指定の機能を加えた。改良されたLYCSを, 間伐方法や密度管理の異なる林分に適用し推定結果の適合性を検討した結果, 多様な間伐計画に応じた個別林分の収穫予測に十分適用できることを確認した。

This study uses simulations to investigate the effects of implementing two different Japanese forestry subsidy systems on timber production and carbon stock, and examines the consequences for harvesting strategies. An existing Local Yield Table Construction System (LYCS), a wood conversion algorithm, and a harvesting cost model were used in the simulations to test the applicability of different subsidies to the thinning of stands. Using forest inventory data collected by local government staff, simulation output was used to calculate forestry profits, carbon stocks, subsidies, the amount of labor required, and the cost effectiveness of investing in subsidies. By comparing the output of simulations based on two scenarios, we found that both the clear-cutting area and the amount of harvested timber were larger under Scenario 2, in which the rules governing subsidy allocations are more relaxed, than under Scenario 1, in which the rules are more restrictive. Because the harvested timber under Scenario 1 was mainly produced by clear-cutting, the forestry profits and the subsidy predicted in the early period of the simulation, were larger under Scenario 1 than under Scenario 2. In contrast, the carbon stock was larger under Scenario 2 than under Scenario 1. The simulation model is likely to be useful for improving Plan-Do-Check-Act cycles implemented in Japanese forest management systems. © 2011 Northeast Forestry University and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

We applied the Local Yield Table Construction System (LYCS), a computer program that predicts stand growth using various stand density controls, to sugi (Cryptomeria japonica), hinoki (Chamaecyparis obtusa), and karamatsu (Larix leptolepis) plantated forests throughout Japan. The parameters were estimated from yield tables of karamatsu forests produced by the managers of the national forests in the Hokkaido, Iwate, Dewa, and Shinshu regions of Japan. The diameter at breast height (DBH) and the number of trees measured in permanent plots were used as the parameters for estimating the effect of stand density on diameter growth. We used these parameters to estimate stand growth in terms of tree height, DBH, and tree diameter distribution. The estimated stand growth data calculated using these parameters were comparable to data in the original yield tables and observed values obtained from permanent plots. These results enabled us to construct yield tables for various stand density control plans for karamatsu forests.

The Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries (REDD) initiative requires accurate estimates of carbon stock changes in forested areas. However, estimating carbon emissions from stumps of various heights left by illegal loggers is difficult. To remedy this problem, we examined two methods of estimating diameter at breast height (DBH) from a reference diameter observation measured at any stump height. The one-reference diameter (OD) observation model estimates DBH from a single diameter observation using empirical coefficients derived mainly from emergent dipterocarp trees. The two-reference diameter (TD) observation model estimates DBH from two diameter observations and assumes a logarithmic relationship between diameter and height. Prediction data to establish the models were collected in Cambodian lowland evergreen forests that are undergoing intensive illegal logging of emergent dipterocarp trees for timber. The OD model performed better than the TD model in predicting DBH and is extremely practical, as it requires only a single diameter observation. Validation data previously collected in the Southeast Asian tropical forests established the general validity of the OD model. This study may improve the reliability of the REDD scheme by providing a reliable method to assess carbon emissions from Southeast Asian tropical forests.

A simplified method for estimating CO₂ emissions from deforestation is the calculation of carbon stock change by monitoring forest land and periodically summing up the land area and its averaged carbon stock for important forest types. As a feasibility study for applying this methodology to a tropical dry-land forest, we estimated carbon stock and its chronosequential change in 4 carbon pools (aboveground and belowground biomass, deadwood, and litter) of tropical dry-land natural forests in Cambodia. Carbon stock differed among forest types. Most of the carbon stock (84 ± 12% (SD)) existed in tree biomass. Growth of carbon stock has a positive relationship to the carbon stock itself. By moderately classifying forest types, determining averaged tree biomass of each forest type, and using land-area data on each forest type, a reasonably accurate estimation of carbon stock can be expected. However, considering that rapidly progressing deforestation and wood extraction may reduce the carbon stock in forests, systematic sampling with a sufficient number of extra plots and frequent updating of forest land area and averaged carbon stock data are vital for an accurate estimation of CO₂ emissions from forests under pressure of land-use change and forestry activities.

We developed a cross-cutting pattern algorithm to maximize the stumpage price of each diameter class of timber, depending on market prices, and applied it to Sugi (Cryptomeria japonica) plantations in Gunma Prefecture, Japan. We used a relative-taper curve and a relative height-diameter curve to estimate taper by diameter at breast height class. Using this algorithm, we estimated the optimum cross-cutting pattern method based on Sugi log prices at different points in time. The optimum cross-cutting pattern allows the stumpage price to rise more dramatically than by the fluctuation of log prices alone. During 6 months, which is a relatively short period of time when considering market conditions, an obvious difference in optimum cross-cutting pattern was confirmed; in some cases, a focus on 3.65-m logs was beneficial, whereas in other cases, 4-m logs produced greater benefits. The difference accords with the prospective cross-cutting pattern considered profitable by the Gunma Forest Association. This result indicates that the algorithm can estimate optimum cross-cutting patterns according to changes in the timber market without contradicting empirical rules.

Principles of Afforestation, Reforestation, and Deforestation (ARD) provided in Article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol should be monitored as land-uses change relative to the base year of 1990. Although the use of remote sensing technology is effective for this purpose, it is difficult to detect land-use changes by digital image analysis. Therefore, the Japanese Government adopted a photo-interpretation method which uses aerial photographs and SPOT-5/HRV-P images for ARD monitoring. In this study, verification of this method was conducted. Kumamoto Prefecture was adopted as study area. Lattice points at 500 m intervals were sampled for photointerpretation. A field survey was performed to evaluate the accuracy of the results obtained by photo-interpretation. The survey indicated values of 68.8 % for AR, and 90.9 % for D. Moreover, the ARD assessment in Akita and Ishikawa Prefectures was interpreted using the same method and the data were compared with the statistical material. The numerical values of both methods corresponded approximately. As a result, the photo-interpretation method enabled monitoring of ARD with a high degree of certainty for the Kyoto Protocol report.

Under Article 3.3 in the Kyoto Protocol, it is necessary to monitor aforestation, reforestation and deforestation (ARD) activities between 1990 and the period of 2008-2012 to account net carbon storage by forest. In this study, we developed detecting ARD method by subtraction operation using two LANDSAT Thematic Mapper images in Higashi-Shirakawa village, Gifu prefecture. The processing flow of geometric correction, topographic correction, adjusting level of digital number and change detection was established. The consideration of selecting most effective bands for change detection and screening over detection was performed. The results were evaluated accuracy by truth data which was manipulated digital ortho-photo images and IKONOS satellite images. This method can distinguish land-cover type changes and decide a threshold value automatically and objectively, the point is exactly an advantage, therefore this method can become useful method when ARD is monitored for the whole country in the future.

Article 3 Section 3 of the Kyoto Protocol prescribes that three types of activities - afforestation, reforestation and deforestation - are to be reported when accounting for forest sinks to compensate for greenhouse gases (GHG). This paper aims to develop a method to estimate the deforesting areas to comply with the Kyoto Protocol using remote sensing (RS) information regarding forest cover change (FCC) which include vegetation cover loss both by deforestation and forest management (FM) activity. The method was developed using 1990 Forestry Census and applied using 2000 Forestry Census. Apparent deforestation area assuming derived from FCC analysis using RS data, and deforestation area were calculated from Forestry Census, and regional zoning was done using Vegetation environment classification method developed by authors. Deforestation factor (α) was defined as α=(FCC-FM) / FCC. Nationwide, district- and prefectural-specific deforestation factors were calculated based on the regional zone. Deforestation area estimation using these factors, it was suggested that if smaller areas are used to calculate deforestation factors, the estimated values are more precise. But it was found prefecture as an area unit was too small to estimate deforestation factor. So cluster analysis was then conducted to group similar prefectural-specific deforestation factor to calculate the deforestation factor of each group (αc). By using 1990 Forestry Census and 2000 Forestry Census, the number of groups was 10 and 7, respectively. Estimated errors of prefectural-specific deforestation area using αc were also acceptable. This study demonstrated by using deforestation factors, deforested areas per prefecture unit is possibly estimated using the results of FCC analysis based on RS information.

This study deals with grazing in kunugi (Quercus acutissima) forests in the Aso district of Kyushu Island in southwest Japan. These forests are managed for production of bed-logs for shiitake mushrooms and cow-calf farming. One of their characteristics is short-term rotation such as 10-15 years for bed-logs and a year for calf production. A forest grazing experiment was begun in Minamioguni to look at forest growth, vegetation change and grazing intensity. Stem densities dropped in a few years. After sprout cutting, they also dropped gradually, then stabilized. Although grazing caused tree damage and suppressed tree growth, grazing intensity of up to 150 cow-days/ha·year did not harm forest regeneration. Herbage volume decreased as grazing was repeated and trees grew. Another investigation of kunugi grazing forests in Minamioguni and Asaji showed the correlation between Ry (yield index in Stand density diagram) and grazing capacity could be expressed with a regression equation. The results were also used to design a yield table for kunugi grazing forests. The yield table has items of Ry and grazing capacity in addition to usual yield table items, and can indicate timber yield and grazing capacity at the same time. The table estimates that proper grazing capacity is 60-80 cow-days/ha·year in wild grass sites. In the light of these results, an optimal management plan was proposed as a diagram integrating stem density, forest yield, and forest management.

九州阿蘇・九重地方で行われているクヌギ混牧林は，シイタケ生産が盛んで原木の需要が高く，同時に放牧が盛んであるというこの地方独特の環境から生まれた土地利用形態である。本報告はクヌギ混牧林に関し，独自に行ってきた数々の試験・調査について取りまとめるのと同時に，これらの結果に基づき施業指針をとりまとめたものである。クヌギ混牧林においても針葉樹混牧林と同様に収量比数Ryと牧養力GCに相関があり，回帰式はGC=96.4-84.0Ryで表され，放牧利用は一般にはRy0.5，集約的な経営ではRy0.6以下で可能と考えられた。これらを基礎に，南小国地方の一般的なクヌギ混牧林を対象とした林分収穫予想表を作成した。これは一般の収穫予想表の項目に加え，牧養力を併記したところに特徴を持つ。その他，試験・調査結果から得られた知見としては，樹高2m程度までは食害を始めとする家畜による被害が発生する危険が高く放牧管理を注意深く行うこと，適切な放牧では萌芽成立本数が調節されるものの，必要があれば3年生頃から萌芽整理を加えることなどが上げられる。これらの結果や知見を総合し，クヌギ混牧林施業体系図として示した。

This study reports the construction of yield tables using LYCS (Local Yield table Constructing System), a computer program based on a diameter growth model. The method and LYCS was developed by SHIRAISHI and is based on yield tables which are extended using a growth model. Hence, yield tables developed by LYCS don't contradict the original yield tables. According SHIRAISHI, modifying LYCS to a species and an area requires precise analysis of growth models and lots of data. It became clear, however, that analysis of existing yield tables and data to develop a parameter of main growth model for mean diameter could be used in LYCS. On the basis of this, yield tables for sugi (Cryptomeria japonica) in Kumamoto district were constructed. Although it was necessary to modify some equations, the fundamental structure of LYCS was not changed. Three types of yield tables for different density control plans were constructed and should be appropriate for prediction. Changes in the dimeter distribution were predicted to be smaller than those observed. This study proves that the SHIRAISHI method and LYCS are flexible and useful for practical application.

This report deals with yield tables of natural shii (Castanopsis spp.) stands for timber production developed using a stand density-control diagram. Since natural hardwood stands such as shii stands don't generally have normal diameter distributions, mean diameter doesn't give appropriate information about the numbers of trees. Median or upper-hinge diameter, however, give direct information about tree number for any distribution types. In the light of the discussions, the shii stand density-control diagram was improved by replacing equivalent mean diameter lines with equivalent upper hinge lines. Then management plans for timber production were discussed and a site index table was compiled. These led to the development of yield tables for different goals of timber production goals.

前報の適正放牧強度の推定方法を基礎に、牧草導入された混牧林を対象とした適正放牧強度の推定方法について検討した。林分の収量比数Ryと牧養力の関係において、牧草の導入効果が町が0.7の時点で消滅する点に注目し、牧草導入された場合のRy・S-牧養カモデルを考案した。また、牧草導入にともなう施肥が樹高成長をも促進することから樹高-年成長モデルを考案し、幼齢混牧林における樹高成長式を導いた。野草利用を前提とした適正放牧強度推定手順のうち、牧養方の推定と樹高成長の推定に関わる部分にこれらのモデルを適応し、牧草導入された場合の適正放牧強度推定方法を作成した。高萩スギ混牧林試験の結果を用い、野草型と牧草型についてシミュレーションを行ったところ適合性は良好であった。シミュレーションによれば全期間の適正放牧強度積算値は野草型では1,242cow-day/ha、牧草型では1,626cow-day/haと推定され、牧草導入の効果は31%にとどまることがわかった。