 | HOSHIKAWA TakeshiDepartment of International Economics Professor/Manager | ||
Last Updated :2024/04/25
Researcher Information
URL
J-Global ID
Research Interests
- 為替相場 国際金融 為替介入 外貨準備 為替予想 外国為替市場介入 GARCH 実証分析 株価 介入 外貨準備高 ボラティリティ 日本経済 グローバル・インバランス 世界金融危機 為替相場政策 ユーロ危機 国際資金フロー 経常収支不均衡 維持可能性 国際通貨システム ブレトンウッズII ユーロ アメリカ経常収支赤字 新しいマクロ経済学 ドル下落 人民元 リージョナル・インバランス ドル不足 新しい国際マクロ経済学
Research Areas
Academic & Professional Experience
- 2018/04 - Today Kindai UniversityFaculty of Economics, Department of International EconomicsProfessor
- 2012/04 - 2018/03 Kindai UniversityFaculty of Economics, Department of International Economics准教授
- 2015/09 - 2016/08 University of California, BerkeleyCenter for Japanese Studies.Visiting scholar
- 2008/04 - 2012/03 Kindai UniversityFaculty of Economics, Department of International Economics講師
- 2007/10 - 2008/03 Kobe UniversityGraduate School of Economics講師
Published Papers
- Takeshi Hoshikawa; Taiyo YoshimiThe Developing Economies Wiley 59 (2) 206 - 222 0012-1533 2021/06 [Refereed]
- Takeshi HoshikawaPHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV 469 102 - 110 0378-4371 2017/03 [Refereed]
This study examined the rebounds in the exchange rate after foreign exchange intervention. When intervention is strongly effective, the exchange rate rebounds at next day. The effect of intervention is reduced slightly by the rebound after the intervention. The exchange rate might have been 67.12-77.47 yen to a US dollar without yen-selling/dollar-purchasing intervention of 74,691,100 million yen implemented by the Japanese government since 1991, in comparison to the actual exchange rate was 103.19 yen to the US dollar at the end of March 2014. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. - Takeshi Hoshikawa; Keiko YamaguchiAPPLIED ECONOMICS LETTERS ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD 20 (3) 238 - 243 1350-4851 2013 [Refereed]
This article shows what the yen/dollar rate would be without foreign exchange interventions by the Japanese government for 61 086 billion yen. If there had been no interventions, then the yen/dollar rate in June 2011 may have been 54.30 instead of the actual rate of 80.52. - Takeshi HoshikawaAPPLIED ECONOMICS LETTERS ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD 19 (1) 25 - 28 1350-4851 2012 [Refereed]
This article examines the regime shift of Japanese foreign exchange policy using monthly data from 1973:1 to 2005:9. We employ the residual-based tests for cointegration with regime shifts proposed by Gregory and Hansen (1996) to detect the change of Japanese exchange rate policy. The result of cointegration test with break shows that exchange rate and Japanese international reserves have long-run relationship. - Shigeyuki Hamori; Takeshi Hoshikawa; Junya Masuda; Kunihiro HanabusaEconomics Bulletin 29 (1) 38 - 50 2009 [Refereed]
This paper empirically analyzes whether a hypothesis from Aukrust (1977) applies to two phenomena in Japan: wage spillover between internationally competitive industries (exposed sectors) and domestically protected industries (sheltered sectors), and wage- and price- setting in those industries. We find that Aukrust's assumptions hold in the case of Japan, as all three of the cointegrating relations assumed by the Aukrust model are confirmed to exist. We also find the causal relations in Japan are more complex than the relations assumed by Aukrust. - Takeshi HoshikawaJOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MONEY AND FINANCE ELSEVIER SCI LTD 27 (4) 547 - 559 0261-5606 2008/06 [Refereed]
This paper examines the effects of the frequency of foreign exchange intervention on exchange rate volatility. Japanese intervention is characterized by differences in the frequency of intervention-there are high and low frequency intervention periods. Using the GARCH methodology, this paper models the changes in the yen/dollar exchange rate, with the frequency of intervention from April 1991 to December 2005 as the focal explanatory variable. The empirical results show that high frequency intervention stabilizes the exchange rate by reducing exchange rate volatility and that low frequency intervention is more effective. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. - Takeshi HoshikawaApplied Financial Economics Letters 4 (3) 221 - 224 1744-6546 2008/05 [Refereed]
We report that the Japanese foreign exchange intervention reduces the yen/US dollar exchange rate volatility. Numerous studies generally concluded that foreign exchange interventions increased exchange rate volatility using daily data. The results of our article using monthly data are contrary to results of previous studies. - Takeshi HoshikawaAPPLIED ECONOMICS LETTERS ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD 15 (7) 519 - 522 1350-4851 2008 [Refereed]
This article examines the causal relationships between foreign exchange intervention and exchange rate. We find evidence of instantaneous causal relationships in mean and variance and feedback causal relationships in mean. It suggests that the expectation for exchange rate and volatility is influenced by information on foreign exchange intervention.
MISC
- Takeshi Hoshikawa; Kazuyuki Inagaki In Matsubayashi, Yoichi, and Shigeto Kitano, eds. "Global Financial Flows in the Pre-and Post-global Crisis Periods": Springer, Chapter 4 99 -112 2022/09
Research Grants & Projects
- 日本学術振興会：科学研究費助成事業 基盤研究(C)Date (from‐to) : 2021/04 -2024/03Author : 星河 武志本研究「日本銀行のETF買入政策に関する研究」では、（１）ETF買入政策は株価に効果があったのか、（２）日銀のETF保有額が増加するなか価格変動による評価損益のリスクへの対処はどのように行うべきか、（３）出口戦略はどのようなものが考えられるか、という３つの問いに答えるべく研究を行う。日本銀行は非伝統的金融政策の一環として2010年12月から指数連動型上場投資信託受益権（ETF）買入政策を行っている。本研究「日本銀行のETF買入政策に関する研究」では、（１）ETF買入政策の効果、（２）ETF保有に伴う評価損益への対処、（３）出口戦略の３つの項目に焦点を当て研究を行う。順に紹介すると、第一にETF買入政策の株価への効果および株価のボラティリティへの効果はどの程度あったのかという点について効果の検証を行う。 2021年度は関連する先行研究に関するサーベイとデータの整備および分析を行う予定であった。先行研究に関するサーベイとデータの整備は完了し、「ETF買入政策は株価に効果があったのか」に関する実証分析を行った。いくつかの問題が発生したものの、対処を行い暫定的な分析結果が得られた状態である。もう少し精緻化した分析を行う必要がある。海外での学会発表等は本年度は行っていない。今後、学会等で報告し、専門家からの指摘を受けて改善した後に論文として投稿したい。 その他として、本研究から派生した論文"Global Financial Crisis and Demand for the US Dollar as an International Currency"（ with Kazuyuki Inagaki）を執筆した。この論文は次年度以降に書籍に掲載される予定である。
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science：Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)Date (from‐to) : 2014/04 -2019/03Author : HOSHIKAWA TakeshiThis research project analyzed exchange rate fluctuations and the formation of market forecasts. We newly defined what price fluctuation is normal and what price fluctuation is not normal, and considered how it is better to predict fluctuations in exchange rates. This study also analyzed foreign exchange intervention and exchange rate rebound.
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science：Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)Date (from‐to) : 2011/11 -2014/03Author : FUJITA Seiichi; MATSUBAYASHI Yoichi; KITANO Shigeto; INOGUCHI Masahiro; IOKIBE Shingo; FUKUMOTO Yukio; HOSHIWAKA Takeshi; SHIBAMOTO Masahiko; YAMAMOTO ShugoIn this project, we tried to examine the feasibility of the global imbalance adjustment both theoretically and empirically. The emergence of huge external imbalances in the world economy had been a peculiar phenomenon in 2000s. Consequently, the research fields include not only the change of current account but also the movements of flow of funds from net and gloss sides and transmission mechanism of macroeconomic policy in the advanced economy. Our research member held a research meeting on a regular basis and made progress in our studies. This project was finally succeeded as a publication of the academic book titled The empirical study of Global money flow: the new challenging subject after financial crisis. In this book we gained success to investigate empirically the possibility and feasibility of the global imbalance from various perspectives and it has draws many academicians'attention.
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science：Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)Date (from‐to) : 2011 -2013Author : HOSHIKAWA TakeshiThis research which titled "Exchange rate risk and foreign exchange policy" investigates empirically how the Japanese foreign exchange policy has influenced the exchange rate and foreign exchange risk.
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science：Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)Date (from‐to) : 2008 -2010Author : FUJITA Seiichi; MATSUBAYASHI Toichi; KENTARO Iwatsubo; SHIGETO Kitano; SHINGO Iokibe; HOSHIKAWA TAKESHIMain findings are as follows, (1)Global Imbalance can be analyzed from various view points, (2)Adjustment mechanism through exchange rate movements has become weak, (3)Causes of current account surplus of China is excessive savings and the revaluation effects of RMB is seemed to be small, (4)Yen-carry trade can be seen as a cause of World Financial Crisis. (See Seiichi FUJITA and Kntaro IWATSUBO eds. Economic Analysis of Global Imbalance, Yuhikaku, 2010.
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science：Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)Date (from‐to) : 2008 -2010Author : HOSHIKAWA TakeshiThe Japanese foreign reserve increased rapidly in the 1990's. This research characterizes empirically how the Japanese foreign exchange policy has influenced the exchange rate, exchange rate volatility and stock price.